First Warn Forecast: Winter storm eyes Kansas City area, heavy snow expected
A winter storm will impact the area on Wednesday, and it has our strongest alert in a First Warn Weather Day. This will be a heavy and prolonged snow, with widespread impacts on the roads and school closings likely. Total accumulations will be 5-8″, though some pockets may get up to 10″ in isolated areas. Winds will also be gusting up to 25 mph, which will reduce visibility while driving and add to the danger on the roads. While this won’t be quite as powerful as the blizzard in January, it will be a potent storm.
LATEST UPDATE:
First Winter System — Monday night into Tuesday
As temperatures begin to decrease, there is a small chance overnight for a few snow showers in the region. Confidence has DECREASED for many impacts out the door Tuesday morning, but just know a few bursts of light snow will be possible to start the day. A trace of snow to a maximum a half inch is possible in select places. There is a good shot some of you do not receive anything by Tuesday morning. This first batch is much weaker than what is to come Tuesday night into Wednesday.
As the front exits east, low pressure from the west will slide off the southern Rockies and into the central plains. With cold air being forced south from high pressure in the northern plains and moist air funneling from the south out of the Gulf, an ideal weather pattern for snow production is expected across the Missouri River Valley. At this time we remain under the sweet spot; not too far north or too far south that the snow amounts would be less. The Low mainly being driven by the Jet Stream deepening across the Central plains and driving east. If the Jet weakens in any way, we will see an alteration to the storm’s system; changing wind speeds, timing, snow amounts, and temperatures. It’s a delicate pattern with minor adjustments being made constantly.
Second Winter System — Tuesday night into Wednesday
A First Warn Weather Day has been declared for Wednesday as an impactful storm rolls through. This second system is more potent than the first, resulting in a bigger punch with impacts compared to the first system with road impacts all Wednesday. The snow showers will start very late Tuesday/early Wednesday morning and will continue to bring snow, heavy at times, throughout the day before diminishing overnight Wednesday. With the heavier snow, reduced visibility will be likely with slick road conditions. Temperatures will be well below the 32-degree mark meaning any precipitation that falls will be snow. Right now, the snow totals for this second system have been increased again to 4-9 inches; however, some areas could have higher amounts. This number will continue to change as we get new information so make sure to check back in on the forecast as we get closer to this event.
Snowfall forecasts are constantly changing but there has been some consistency in the “worst case scenario” data, meaning we are consistently seeing 8.1 inches-8.6 inches, most of which falls on Wednesday. Most data still indicates a range between 5 inches and 9 inches across the I-70 corridor. Overall, this is expected to be significant and dangerous for traveling on Wednesday.
We anticipate the storm system to exit by early evening Wednesday, which may give snow plows time to clear our major roads Wednesday night for Thursday morning’s commute. Local neighborhoods however may have snow issues so please be aware of this for Thursday.
Exceptionally cold air for this time of year is also expected to be introduced to the region on the coattails of this storm. Single-digit morning low temperatures are expected both Thursday and Friday with feel like temperatures ranging between -5 degrees and -15 degrees.
Third Winter System — Friday night into Saturday
The next winter system is possible Friday night into Saturday. Since temperatures are going to be above the freezing mark this system will start off as rain to a winter mix to snow by Saturday. Models do not agree with the exact timing as one brings precipitation on Friday evening and the other waits until Saturday. Depending on the timing this system could impact any Valentine’s plans if you are planning to take your sweetheart out for a dinner date. Saturday is a first warn as any plans could be impacted by this third system with both long-range models depicting wintry precipitation throughout the day.
It is about to be a very active week in of weather with multiple systems. Regardless of how much snow you get this system will have impacts on the area. So please plan accordingly as we prepare for these three rounds of snow.
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