FIRST WARN FORECAST: Wednesday winter storm latest timing and totals
Wednesday remains a First Warn Weather Day, our strongest alert, as widespread snow will blanket the area. School cancellations are already widespread, and dangerous driving is expect on our roads. Freezing drizzle will be a concern until the area switches over to all snow before sunrise Wednesday, though ice accumulations look very light. Be ready for a slick and snowy morning drive, with snow continuing into the afternoon.
WHAT’S NEW:
The latest information is pointing to two features that will lower expected snow totals from earlier forecasts. The first is that the snow looks to end about three hours earlier, shaving off that much time for snow to continue to stack up. The second is that the period of heavy snow, which looked to be much of the day previously, now looks confined to the morning. Snow will continue for the afternoon, but it will be much lighter and won’t accumulate nearly as much. This has lowered the expected amount to 3-5″ for much of the region, including the Kansas City metro. Pockets of 5-6″ are possible north of Kansas City, and some may walk away with as little as 2″ in the weaker parts of the storm (though where those will be are not clear). Still, the impacts remain much the same with hazardous and snow-covered roads.
TIMING:
Snow will be scattered for much of the night, then the main event comes in early Wednesday morning with widespread snow. The heaviest of it will occur right through the commute, up until about 9 a.m. Snow continues until about 3 p.m., though it will be lighter. Most of the area should be done before sunset Wednesday.
WHAT’S THE SAME:
This will be a powdery and fluffy snow, which is easier to shovel. It is also easier to blow around, so the wind gusts up to 25 mph from the northeast will reduce visibility at times. The day will also be very cold with temperatures near 20 much of the day and wind chills in the single digits.
WHAT ELSE IS AHEAD:
Winter has a firm grip on us, with Thursday being very cold. We are First Warning of morning wind chills from -5 to -15. Friday will be warmer with highs near 40, but it looks to come with 30-40 mph wind gusts. Saturday packs yet another winter system, and we are First Warning for morning rain transitioning to afternoon snow. An additional 1-3″ of accumulation looks possible. Sunday then tank with temperatures back down to a high of 18.
TOTALS:
Due to the slightly earlier end time for this winter storm, our latest data has cut totals a bit. We still expect similar impacts, but 3 to 5 inches will likely be a bit more common. There are still pockets, especially north of KC, that could receive 5 to 7 inches still. There is also a bit less moisture in place for this system than our computer models were expecting earlier in the week. Those are a few reasons we confidently shifted numbers down. Still, 3 to 5 inches of snow will cause plenty of issues. Please reconsider traveling on Wednesday if you don’t have to. Watch the flight boards as well. Thankfully with this round, we are expecting all snow, so ice is not a current threat.
COLD AIR:
Due to the very cold air that wraps into this system, we have a concern with dangerous conditions on Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Low temperatures drop down to the lower single digits, and when you factor in the wind, our feels-like temperatures will be as cold as -15 degrees.
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