Deep-red Florida congressional districts may be surprisingly competitive in special election

WASHINGTON (Gray DC) - Two special elections for open congressional seats in Florida are set to take place on Tuesday and they are expected to be surprisingly competitive.

The Sunshine State races for Florida’s 1st and 6th congressional districts are being held after former Rep. Mike Waltz (R-FL) stepped down to become the president’s national security adviser and Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) resigned in January.

Florida’s outgoing Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis (R) is running against Gay Valimont (D) in the 1st Congressional District race. State Senator Andy Fine (R) is up against Josh Weil (D) in the 6th Congressional District election.

The two open seats are typically considered safely red but large amounts of national attention has turned toward the districts in recent days after Democratic candidates were significantly outraising their Republicans counterparts.

“So a lot of this money is being raised by small dollar donors across the country, most of which are outside of Florida,” said Erin Covey, U.S. House Editor for the Cook Political Report.

Covey said the fundraising disparity has been particularly wide in the sixth district.

“[Randy Fine] has not raised as much as the Republican who’s running in the first district and did not go up on TV and start airing ads until recently, even though his Democratic opponent had been up on TV for weeks,” she said.

President Donald Trump highlighted the disparity in the number of television ads being run in the races last Friday.

“So the airwaves are blanketed, and you never know what happens in a case like that,” said the president.

Trump also posted to Truth Social last Thursday about not wanting to take any risks with the House Republican’s slim majority, following his withdrawal of Rep. Elise Stefanik’s nomination for UN ambassador.

“With a very tight Majority, don’t want to take a chance on anyone else running for Elise’s seat,” the president wrote.

Covey said she believes that Democrats are still unlikely to succeed in the Florida races. She said the race is more about messaging.

“So I think a lot of it is about trying to, on both sides, control the narrative on some level. If, the Democrat gets closer than he should in this sort of district, which would not be a surprise at all at this point, that will be a good night for Democrats,” said Covey.

Chair of the Republican Party of Florida Evan Power said he is confident in his party’s nominees winning both seats.

“So [Democrats] love to claim that they are making some inroads in Florida. But the fact is we’re going to return two Trump ing candidates to D.C.” he said.

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