First Warn Forecast: Drizzles mostly move their way out, cloudy chilly conditions stay

KANSAS CITY, Mo. (KCTV) - There is a warm front lifting through the region into tonight, so temperatures are actually going to stay very mild. You will notice our humidity levels tick up and up into Sunday night as well. Those nighttime lows will stay in the 60s. Already a warm start to Monday. Winds pick up significantly out of the south during the day from 15-25 mph and could gust as strong as 40 mph. High temperatures jump near 80 degrees in the afternoon.

This warmer and more humid environment will help set the stage for possible severe thunderstorm development later in the day Monday, prompting a First Warn Weather Day. There are a few scenarios we are watching for. We start the day dry and look to stay that way into the afternoon. After 4 PM, a dry line and cold front start to approach from the west. We have ample moisture, warm temperatures, good wind shear and available energy all ready to go. There is a limiting factor that could limit late afternoon/early evening development, and that would be the cap (basically a lid that can develop in the atmosphere, hurting development). The computer models are suggesting that this cap holds strong in the late afternoon/early evening timeframe. While there is not much popping up on forecast radar, I do not want to shut out the chance completely for a few storms to get going. They would be isolated in coverage, but could be very strong. Think supercells. This would pose a risk for all modes of severe hazards, including a tornado. This is very conditional at this time, and there is a way this plays out where we don’t get storms to fire up early and we stay dry. The 4-9 PM timeframe is one we will be watching closely.

As soon as the cold front starts to approach later in the evening (after 10 PM), storms will have more of a forcing mechanism and should start to pop up more widespread. At this time, the line looks to form in northwest Missouri and northeast Kansas, then slowly push to the south. While our threat for severe thunderstorms starts to drop off the later we go into Monday night, we still think gusty winds and hail will be possible with the line that forms. That timeframe looks to be more 10 PM - 4 AM. Confidence is a bit higher to see storms late, versus the afternoon. We will see how this ends up playing out. Regardless, be prepared for activity starting after 4 PM Monday. Noisy thunderstorms Monday night will likely be out of here by 4-6 AM Tuesday, so impacts to the commute are not expected.

Then, that cold front stalls out across southern Missouri Tuesday afternoon. That will continue to spark more rain chances for days to follow. Wednesday and Thursday are looking to have off and on rain and rumbles. The farther south you live from I-70, higher rainfall totals are expected. There are spots that could pick up two to four inches of rain by the end of the day Thursday. A more likely scenario for the KC metro is in the half to inch and a half inch range.

Temperatures will generally be in the 70s Wednesday and beyond.

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